First-place Phils close out hard-fought set with Marlins

Baseball Betting Lines

09/08/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It wasn't easy, but the Philadelphia Phillies now lead the National League East for the first time since late May.

Cole Hamels will try to keep his squad there as he aims for a third straight victory in the finale of a four-game series with the Florida Marlins tonight at Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies posted an 8-7 victory over the Marlins last night, and coupled with a Braves loss to Pittsburgh, moved a half-game past Atlanta for the top spot in the division. Philadelphia hadn't owned sole possession of first place since May 30.

Philadelphia trailed Atlanta by seven games for that spot on July 21, but have gone an MLB-leading 32-14 since.

"It's always good to be in first place. That's the only way to live," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said.

The Phillies built a 7-4 advantage over the Marlins thanks in part to homers from Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino and Ryan Howard, but a sloppy top of the eighth inning allowed the Marlins to tie things.

However, Victorino singled to start the home half of the eighth, stole second and then scored on Placido Polanco's single with two outs.

Ryan Madson, who allowed the game-tying run to score on a wild pitch in the eighth, locked down the final three outs for the win, the Phillies' seventh in nine games.

Mike Stanton led off Florida's three-run eighth with a homer, his third in as many games, while Brad Davis made it a one-run game when he scored on Jayson Werth's throwing error. Emilio Bonifacio later tied things on Madson's wild pitch after previously getting to third on a balk.

Florida has lost two straight since winning five of six.

"We came back. They came back. It was one of those games," Marlins manager Edwin Rodriguez said.

Hamels comes into this start on a bit of a roll. The 26-year-old has won back- to-back starts and thrown 15 scoreless innings since an 0-3 stretch over his previous eight starts that featured a solid 2.83 ERA.

Hamels hurled eight innings of four-hit ball to beat San Diego on Aug. 29, then limited Milwaukee to three hits and three walks over seven frames on Friday, striking out seven to improve to 9-10 with a 3.18 ERA this year.

The southpaw, who has allowed one run or fewer in seven of his last 11 starts, lost his only previous start this year versus the Marlins, back on April 18, despite allowing just two runs over eight innings. He is 2-7 with a 4.26 ERA lifetime versus them.

The Marlins go with lefty Andrew Miller, who has allowed one run or less in three of his four outings this year, including two starts. He beat the Braves on Friday, holding them to just a run on seven hits and three walks over five innings while striking out six.

The 25-year-old picked up his first win since July 4, 2009 and is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA this year. He is 0-3 with a 5.16 ERA in 10 career games versus the Phillies, including five starts.

The Phillies have won five of their last six over the Marlins and lead the season series 9-5.

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Kurt Warner to start, Matt Leinart to watch

Despite the debate that's swirling , Kurt Warner will remain the starting quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals, coach Dennis Green said today. The Arizona Cardinals are the +7 point underdog at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com for this Sunday's game.

Green's comment came in a statement released by the team following an ESPN report that Green decided that rookie Matt Leinart would replace Warner as starter for Sunday's game at Atlanta.

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To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs.

Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.