First-place Reds to begin interleague set with Royals

Baseball Betting Lines

06/11/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hitting with runners in scoring position has been one of the main ingredients to the success of the Cincinnati Reds. The National League Central leaders will try to cook up some more wins at home when they welcome the Kansas City Royals to town Friday for the first of three straight interleague games at Great American Ball Park.

The Reds opened the homestand by splitting a four-game series with San Francisco and entered Thursday's contest with a major league-best .294 average with runners in scoring position. They racked up seven runs in a 7-6 victory over the Giants yesterday afternoon, as Brandon Phillips stroked a two-RBI triple and Joey Votto added an RBI single during a decisive three-run eighth inning. Phillips had four hits and two runs scored in his first leadoff performance since 2007.

"We just believe in ourselves," said Phillips, who began the day ranked among the league leaders in runs and hits and is riding a 13-game hitting streak. "It was a great game. We really needed it."

Jonny Gomes and Jay Bruce both had two hits and an RBI for Cincinnati, while Scott Rolen's nine-game hitting streak came to an end with an 0-for-4 showing at the plate. Rolen did lift a sacrifice fly to right field in the third inning to score Phillips.

Reds rookie starting pitcher Mike Leake did not record a decision and was roughed up for five runs and 11 hits in 4 1/3 innings. Arthur Rhodes recorded the win with 1 2/3 scoreless innings of relief and Francisco Cordero closed the door in the ninth for his 17th save. Cordero is tied with San Diego's Heath Bell for second in the bigs in saves, three behind Washington's Matt Capps.

The Reds have won four of their last six games and sit 1 1/2 games ahead of rival St. Louis in the NL Central standings. They will also host the Los Angeles Dodgers for three games on this homestand and own a 21-13 record in the Queen City.

Since winning five starts in his previous six outings, Reds starter Bronson Arroyo is 0-1 with a 6.57 earned run average in his last two trips to the hill and hopes to get back on track Friday against the Royals. Arroyo started the slide in a 12-4 rout at St. Louis on May 31, when he was pounded for seven runs and 10 hits in 4 1/3 innings. He last toed the rubber on Sunday in 5-4 Reds' win in Washington, but did not figure into the outcome despite holding the Nationals to a pair of runs over eight innings.

The right-hander, who is 2-1 in five home starts in 2010, is still in search of his first career win against the Royals. Arroyo is 0-2 with a 5.52 ERA in four career appearances, two of which have been starts, versus Kansas City. Overall this season, he's 5-3 with a 4.65 ERA in 12 starts.

Kansas City was able to avoid a three-game sweep at the hands of the American League Central-rival Minnesota Twins with a 9-8 victory on Thursday. Wilson Betemit homered twice and Mitch Maier clubbed a two-run shot for the Royals, who won for just the third time in eight tries and got a big lift from the veteran Betemit.

"He's a kid that's been around awhile," Royals manager Ned Yost said of Betemit. "He knows how to prepare himself and take advantage of an opportunity when it's given to him."

Royals starter Bruce Chen lasted 6 1/3 innings and yielded five runs on 10 hits to record the win. He also fanned a season-best seven batters and walked one. Joakim Soria recorded his 14th save of the year despite giving up two runs in the ninth inning.

Kansas City is 1-2 on a six-game road trip and owns a 13-18 record away from Kauffman Stadium this season.

Luke Hochevar is slated to pitch tonight's series opener for the Royals and has lost two straight starts and four of his last seven decisions. Hochevar was on the losing end of a solid performance his last time out in a 4-2 verdict versus Detroit on Saturday, when he hurled seven innings of one-run ball and struck out a season-high 10 batters.

Hochevar, who is 5-4 with a 4,74 earned run average in 12 starts this season, has enjoyed pitching on the road to the tune of a 4-1 mark in six trips to the visitor's mound. The right-hander and former No. 1 draft pick faced Cincinnati for the first time on June 12 of last year and recorded his first career complete game in a 4-1 win. Hochevar scattered three hits, allowed one run and struck out three batters that day.

Cincinnati is 7-7 all-time versus Kansas City and 85-105 overall in interleague play, while the Royals swept the Reds in three games at home from June 12-14 of last season. Kansas City sports a 108-124 ledger against the National League.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.

Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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