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08/16/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - What happened to Dustin Johnson on Sunday at the PGA Championship was cruel, vicious, heartbreaking and borderline tragic.
"Joke."
"Terrible for golf."
Tim Rosaforte of the Golf Channel reported someone yelled "you were robbed" to Johnson in the parking lot.
These are things I had texted to me or read, but know what else it was?
Avoidable.
I'm a human being, so I'm sensitive to what happened. Johnson thought he was in a playoff for his first major championship and it was ripped away from him before he could even get started.
We all know what happened. Johnson drove into a patch of sand right of the fairway at 18 with a one-shot lead. He grounded his club in the sand, made bogey, thought he was in a playoff, then had his guts torn out.
There are so many questions that spring to mind, so let's handle them, but sadly the outcome is always the same.
First, was it a bunker or not? Well the sandy area certainly didn't look any bigger than the soul patch under Johnson's lip, so it's totally understandable to think it wasn't a bunker. I didn't. Neither did Johnson, obviously.
If you don't think it's a bunker, that's an opinion that is not shared by the PGA of America. They designated it a bunker based on how the course was designed. Since the sandy strip had that designation, there really can't be a question as to whether or not Johnson deserved the two-stroke penalty. He clearly grounded his club and never denied it afterwards.
With the PGA Championship returning to Whistling Straits in five years, here's a free piece of advice for the PGA of America - do something about the bunkers. Yes, you posted rules that said where and what bunkers were, but then didn't enforce them at all. Gallery members were standing in said areas. CBS even showed a kid playing in one. If they are outside the ropes, but still bunkers, they need to be treated as such. Poor job on that front by the officials and marshals.
As semi-understandable as it is to think that wasn't a bunker, Johnson made some huge oversights. For one, he should've known that area was a bunker if it was posted on the rules sheet, which was posted in the locker room and other places. Ignorance is no defense.
It was downright alarming to hear how many players defended Johnson based on the fact they didn't know the rules or check the sheet. Whistling Straits isn't a regular tour stop, so why wouldn't players check local rules since they haven't been here in six years? Do you think Tiger Woods wouldn't have checked the sheet or known the rules? Of course he would know that.
Johnson wasn't here six years ago, but this is the part that I'll never understand or forgive. He flat-out didn't know the rules and that's inexcusable.
Next, with a major title on the line on the 72nd hole, it's understandable that Johnson had a lot of thoughts swimming in his noodle. While standing over his ball that was clearly in sand, why didn't Johnson think to ask an official if it was a bunker? Not to oversimplify this whole experience, but at the end of the day, Johnson was standing over a ball that was in some form of sand.
Why didn't the walking rules official stop Johnson before he got in there and grounded the club? There are several explanations for this. Sadly, maybe the official didn't even know the rule.
Secondly, Mark Wilson, one of the co-chairmen of rules committee brought up a logistical explanation.
"David (Price) certainly would have jumped in, under the circumstances with the many people over there, it was hard," said Wilson, referring to the large gallery around Johnson. "If the walking official can prevent a breach of the rules, he certainly will, but under the circumstances it was hard enough to get the player over there and again if it's that hard to get the player over there, all the rules official is going to be doing is hovering over the player and they're really not trying to encourage that. We're not trying to tell the players that, hey, you've been assigned a walking official because we're going to scrutinize every rule."
I hate hypotheticals almost as much as I hate black cherry soda, but what if the walking official goes up to Johnson and says, "Be careful, this may be a bunker, but I'm not sure." Now, Johnson has tons of thoughts about what to do with a one-shot lead on the 72nd hole of a major. That's a nightmare scenario and probably great fodder for a different column because an official should never be the story or interject himself or herself into things like that.
Plus, I don't think it's a rules official's place to inform a guy he might be breaking a rule when the guy should've known it for himself.
Golf, perhaps more than any other sport, is a stickler for rules. Ever heard that golf is a gentleman's game and that it polices itself? Of course you have. Whether or not you think the rule was dumb or the interpretation was flawed, what Johnson did was illegal under the rules as set forth by the rules committee.
Sadly, that rules infraction comes with a penalty. That penalty came at a horrible time, but it was the right call.
As a human being with a beating heart, I felt bad for Johnson. It was cruel, vicious, heartbreaking and tragic.
Oh, and completely avoidable.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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