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09/03/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Cubs will try to continue their strong play under interim manager Mike Quade this afternoon when they open a three-game series against the New York Mets at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs are 6-3 since Lou Piniella stepped down on August 22 and just took two of three from the Pittsburgh Pirates, including a 5-3 win in Wednesday's finale.
Kosuke Fukudome finished 3-for-3 with a pair of doubles, two runs scored and an RBI to lead the way, while Tyler Colvin, Micah Hoffpauir, Koyie Hill and Jeff Baker each knocked in a run in the victory.
Thomas Diamond (1-3) picked up his first major-league win, despite allowing two hits and two runs in 1 2/3 innings of relief. Starter Tom Gorzelanny exited after 2 2/3 innings when a line drive from Jose Tabata struck his left hand.
"It's always nice to get your first. I wish it would have happened a little sooner, but it happened and now I hope I can go out and get a few more," Diamond said of his inaugural victory.
Carlos Marmol recorded the final four outs, and fanned three in a scoreless ninth to earn his 25th save.
Today, the Cubs will turn to righty Randy Wells, who is coming off his first win in more than a month. Wells defeated the Cincinnati Reds last Saturday, holding them to a pair of runs and six hits in six innings to run his record to 6-12, while lowering his earned run average to 4.50.
He had been 0-5 in his last six starts and had not won since beating the St. Louis Cardinals back on July 23.
Wells did not get a decision the last time he faced the Mets, despite surrendering just a run in six innings, and is 0-1 in two starts against them with a 1.50 ERA.
The Mets, meanwhile, will turn to knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, who is 9-5 with a 2.57 ERA. Dickey was impressive in beating the Houston Astros on Sunday, allowing a run and six hits in six innings to match a career-high in wins he set with Texas in 2003.
This, though, will be his first-ever start against the Cubs. However, he is 3-0 against the NL Central and 3-1 in day games with a 2.13 ERA.
New York salvaged the finale of its four-game set with the Atlanta Braves on Thursday, but lost ace Johan Santana in the process. Santana left after five innings, but limited Atlanta to just one run in New York's 4-2 win.
Santana (11-9) exited the game with a strained pectoral muscle. Prior to his departure, the left-hander had given up the one run on three hits with a walk and three strikeouts to break a three-start losing streak.
"It just progressed through the game," said Santana about the injury. "It's not something that happened on one pitch. I warmed up fine, but I eventually started to feel the tightness. I was able to finish the inning and thought I was able to come back out, but they didn't want to take any chances."
David Wright hit a solo home run while Joaquin Arias also had an RBI for the Mets, who have won just three of their last nine.
"This is all that we can do is win today's game," said Wright. "As much as we would have liked to play better here, we did what we could control today and that was win today's game."
The Mets, who have won three of four versus the Cubs this season, should get shortstop Jose Reyes back this weekend along with outfielder Angel Pagan. Reyes has missed the last seven games with an oblique injury, while Pagan has been battling right wrist tendinitis.
<< Ramirez, White Sox begin series in Boston
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manny Ramirez returns to one of his old stomping grounds in
a new uniform when the former Boston star leads the Chicago White Sox into
Fenway Park for a key three-game series with the Red Sox that begins tonight.
Ramir
<< Indians, Mariners continue set between last-place clubs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Shin-Soo Choo and the Cleveland Indians look to remain in
the win column when they resume a four-game series against the homestanding
Seattle Mariners tonight from Safeco Field.
Choo stroked a three-run double during a fou
<< A's seeking to get back on track against Angels
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oakland Athletics are coming off a beating in the Bronx
and are back in the Bay Area to kick off a nine-game homestand starting with
Friday's opener of a three-game series versus the Los Angeles Angels of
Anaheim.
The
<< Rockies visit Padres for clash of slumping contenders
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If the Colorado Rockies are going to return to the
postseason, they need to turn it around soon. This weekend would be a good
start, as they begin a three-game series against the National League West-
leading San Diego Padres
First-place teams collide as Rangers visit Twins >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the Texas Rangers appear to be headed to their first
American League West title since 1999, the AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins
still have some work to do.
The two division leaders will square off tonight in the o
JoePa, Royster on verge of milestones >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's a milestone in itself that Penn State
icon Joe Paterno is still coaching in the twilight of his years. So it comes
as no surprise that the bespectacled legend is approaching 400 career wins.
His tra
Roethlisberger's suspension reduced to four games >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has reduced the
suspension of Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger from six to
four games.
The NFL Network reported that the reduction came after Goodell me
WVU's Devine ready for senior year >>
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. (AP) -Noel Devine stayed in school just for this.Rather than take a chance on the NFL draft last April, Devine is returning for one final season in which he believes ``the sky is the limit.''Liftoff starts Saturday when No. 25 West
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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The 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds have been released and Denver Broncos' running back Knowshon Moreno has been made the opening favorite.
Moreno was selected in the first round of April's NFL draft and is expected to carry the rushing load for the Broncos this season. And with Jay Cutler now in Chicago, Moreno might be expected to be Denver's entire offense.
Betting Lines from sports betting lines have made Moreno a 5/2 favorite to win this year's Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Fellow running back Chris “Beanie” Wells (Arizona Cardinals) is right behind Moreno at 7/2, while Donald Brown (Indianapolis Colts) and receiver Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers) are 5/1 to win. Quarterbacks Mark Sanchez (New York Jets) and Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions) are 7/1 and 8/1, respectively.
A couple of players who present some value are Josh Freeman, Shonn Green and Darrius Heyward-Bey.
Freeman needs to beat out Byron Leftwich to become the starting quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but if he does, he has a lot or raw talent and could use the weapons around him (i.e. Kellen Winslow Jr. and Antonio Bryant) to be very successful in his first season.
Green enters a crowded backfield in New York, but considering both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are unhappy about their contract situations and might holdout, the former Iowa product could become the Jets' primary back.
Everyone was shocked when Al Davis took Heyward-Bey with the eighth overall pick in April's draft, but the kid has a tremendous amount of talent and if quarterback JaMarcus Russell takes the next step this year, the former Maryland product could blossom. Plus, Heyward-Bey will be looking to prove the people wrong who said Oakland should have taken Michael Crabtree with the No. 8 pick.
And if you're looking for a deep sleeper, check out Pat White at 30/1. He enters the Miami Dolphins vaunted “Wild Cat” offense and could be a big time playmaker.
For complete odds on the 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, see below.
2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds to Win
Ramses Barden (NYG) 40/1
Andre Brown (NYG) 20/1
Donald Brown (IND) 5/1
Kenny Britt (TEN) 20/1
Glenn Coffee (SFO) 30/1
Chase Coffman (CIN) 50/1
Michael Crabtree (SFO) 5/1
Josh Freeman (TB) 14/1
Shonn Green (NYJ) 14/1
Percy Harvin (MIN) 10/1
Darrius Heyward-Bay (OAK) 18/1
Juaquan Iglesias (CHI) 30/1
Cornelius Ingram (PHI) 50/1
Rashad Jennings (JAC) 30/1
Johnny Knox (CHI) 40/1
Jeremy Maclin (PHI) 18/1
Mohamed Massaquoi (CLE) 30/1
LeSean McCoy (PHI) 12/1
Knowshon Moreno (DEN) 5/2
Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 18/1
Brandon Pettigrew (DET) 30/1
Brian Robiskie (CLE) 20/1
Mark Sanchez (NYJ) 7/1
Matthew Stafford (DET) 8/1
Jason Smith (STL) 40/1
Mike Thomas (JAC) 25/1
Patrick Turner (MIA) 50/1
Mike Wallace (PIT) 50/1
Chris Wells (ARI) 7/2
Pat White (MIA) 30/1
Field (Any Other Player) 9/1
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